"Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific" (Mireya Solís)
By Sophie Welsh
The third seminar in the autumn of 2023 featured Mireya Solís, who presented her latest book, Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific. The work is a deep dive on the transformations in Japan’s external environment and domestic politics over the last three decades. Solís presented two main arguments: first, after a three-decade process, Japan has become more relevant in all aspects of world politics; and second, despite an admitted loss of relative capabilities (in economic and military terms), it has become a more important actor and a U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific’s regional dynamics, honing its ability to “do more with less.”
Solís noted that the populist wave has not impacted Japan like it has in other Western and European countries. Japan has not experienced the same level of social conflicts and political polarization that countries like the United States have, and there are fewer Japanese voices calling for economic nationalism. The fewer instances of social division within Japan allows for more resilience in its democracy, which has enabled Japan to become more proactive through its administrative reforms and electoral rule changes. The position of the Prime Minister can now exercise more effective leadership in national policymaking. The government has had a greater leverage to overcome the power of the agricultural lobby to conclude trade agreements, and more generally has achieved more efficiency in public policymaking.
Various factors in the international environment have encouraged Japan to take a proactive stance. Geopolitical divisions have certainly become harder to navigate across a multitude of areas. China, which has been central in Japan’s geopolitical thinking, is reverting to practices of state-led capitalism. From a security angle, Japan is one of several Asian countries feeling a threat from Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific, and questions have been raised about what China’s goals are. Meanwhile, Japan’s relationship with the U.S. has deepened. Japan has become central to the U.S. achieving its Indo-Pacific strategy, while certain policy agendas remain for further cooperation. Japan has concerns about the “America First” agenda and the protectionist turn in U.S. politics and policymaking. Solís stressed that each side needs to be realistic about what the other can do, now that stakes are higher (most notably in a potential Taiwan contingency).
Amid all these changes, Japan has demonstrated strong leadership on the global stage. Where it used to be passive and avoided taking on an overtly political role, it is now actively shaping the Indo-Pacific region’s economic and security architecture. Japan has taken on a “strategy of connectivity,” through which it envisions a role as a “network power,” partly through the private sector’s activities, and partly through the government’s policy initiatives. Solís noted that Japan is a peer competitor for China in the area of infrastructure finance. The fact that it provides capital as well as training and tacit knowledge means that developing countries have options between Japan and China in infrastructure development . In addition, Japan’s connective power has been shown in its leading the enactment of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal, and its continuing leadership role in the region’s economic integration. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan proposed the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP), a vision and a plan for regional order widely accepted by many countries in the region. Japan is also deepening its engagement with countries other than the U.S., such as Australia, India, and Southeast Asian countries.
Some changes are yet to come, including challenges which relate to the weaponization of economic independence. For example, Japan’s pandemic response included lengthy border closures, which hurt its labor supply and compounded its demographic issues. The pandemic also brought to light the risk of disruptions to its global supply chains. Security tensions also pose challenges, particularly considering Japan’s limitations regarding the use of force. And Japan’s strategic thinking has been shaken by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So far, Japan’s response amid such challenges has been to double down on its network strategy.
The question and answer session after the talk opened up a lively discussion about Japan’s broader and deeper network of relationships, such as its ties with the U.S. and Southeast Asia; its improved relations with South Korea; and the scope for Sino-Japanese competition in the Global South.